Polls trending Democrats’ way in key California House races

Considering that polls on this matter have been terribly incorrect recently…..


According to the San Francisco Chronicle, with just over a month to go before the Nov. 6 midterms, a flurry of polls and independent studies shows there’s movement going on in the California congressional races – and most of it favors the Democrats.

Just last week, for example, Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter, upgraded Democrats’ chances in five GOP-held congressional districts. Seats held by GOP Reps. Jeff Denham of Turlock (Stanislaus County), Steve Knight of Lancaster (Los Angeles County) and Mimi Walters of Irvine (Orange County) all were were changed from “Tilt R” to “Toss-up” by Nathan Gonzalez, who runs the newsletter.

It was even worse for longtime GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa (Orange County) and Republican Diane Harkey, who is seeking the seat now held by retiring Rep. Darrell Issa of Vista (San Diego County). Inside Elections has moved those formerly toss-up contests into the Democratic column.

A poll that Siena College did for the New York Times found Democrat Katie Porter, a law school professor, with a 48 percent to 43 percent lead over Walters among likely voters. Another poll that Siena College did a few days earlier showed attorney Mike Levin leading Harkey, 51 percent to 41 percent, among those most likely to vote.

Those are among the races that could well determine which party controls the House for the next two years. Democrats have to flip 23 Republican-held seats nationwide to take control of the House, a position from which they could make all sorts of trouble for President Trump.

It’s all about to get very real: Although “election day” is Nov. 6, California will start mailing out ballots to voters Monday. For the full story on the poll details that campaigns are paying especially close attention to, click here.

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