Good Morning, It Is Monday, Columbus Day and It Has Been A Ride

The Senate’s 50-48 vote to confirm President Trumps  nominee to the Supreme Court sets up a one-month sprint to a midterm election in which both parties believe their bases have been electrified by the brutal court battle and deepening national political divisions.

While we may not agree, The Hill has put together a group of Winners and losers from the Kavanaugh court battle.

Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh will be sworn in again today, this time by the president, following a confirmation fight that appears to have energized conservatives, who believe Kavanaugh was the victim of character assassination and a smear campaign from a “liberal mob.”

Republicans are still facing the possibility of a rout in the House, but GOP leaders believe their base voters better understand the political stakes after the Supreme Court battle, and will turn out to ensure they keep their majority in the Senate because of it.

Democrats are disappointed by the outcome of the court fight but believe it will light a match beneath the already simmering anger and disgust at Trump and the Republican Congress. Liberals are looking to capitalize, believing the GOP has done long-term damage to its brand among women voters, who are primed to turn out in record numbers this November.

The polls were already moving against Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) in North Dakota. Does her “no” vote on Kavanaugh in a state Trump carried easily in 2016 send Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) to the Senate?

In an interview last night on CBS’s “60 Minutes,” Heitkamp was asked if it would have been better for her reelection bid to have supported Trump’s Supreme Court nominee.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt about that.” – Heitkamp

On the other end of the spectrum, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) may have secured another term in the upper chamber by voting “yes.”

Meanwhile, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), whose last-minute decision to back Kavanaugh helped put him over the top, may have already drawn a high-profile challenger for 2020.

The consensus: The proximity of the Kavanaugh saga to the midterm elections injects fresh uncertainty into a volatile electorate and we do mean volatile… we witnessed this first hand from a friend.

But the November results will satisfy few and will likely only aggravate the seismic political debates – in existence well before Trump’s presidency – raging across the country heading into yet another presidential election cycle.

We can’t say what will happen, but we are worried that the House will turn one more step left.

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