👎 Broken Senate pipeline

For the fourth time this year, a term-limited governor is saying a hard “NO” to the Senate, dealing big blows to party leaders John Thune and Chuck Schumer.

• 👎 Georgia: Gov. Brian Kemp (R) won’t challenge vulnerable Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in 2026. Thune flew to Atlanta last month to recruit Kemp, as we scooped.
• 👎 Michigan, Kentucky and New Hampshire: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), Gov. Andy Beshear (D) and former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) are skipping open races next year.

Why it matters: The governor-to-Senate pipeline is reversing this cycle.

• Since 1986, 54incumbent or former governors have run for Senate seats — compared to just 14 sitting or former senators who ran for governor, according to a recent analysis by Ballotpedia.
• The senators won gubernatorial elections 73% of the time, while governors won their Senate races just 48% of the time.

Zoom in: At least three senators are now looking at ditching the Senate for the governor’s mansion.

• In Colorado, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) has already announced a run for governor.
• In Tennessee and Alabama, Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R) and Tommy Tuberville (R) are seriously considering gubernatorial campaigns, as well.

What to watch: FormerGov. Roy Cooper (D-N.C.) has yet to make a decision on whether he will try to oust Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) from his seat next year.

• Cooper would be the Democrats’ best bet at flipping the seat.

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