As we count down to Election Day, now forty-two days away, I’m on the road a lot. Today, I’m in Kiawah Island, South Carolina at a conference. The feeling among the conservatives here is mixed. We are in a very tied race. One candidate is playing a poor hand well. The other is playing a great hand not so well. Neither side’s base of support can really process just how tied the race is. Both are in bubbles of their own making, having difficulty understanding how the other half of the country is thinking.
Democrats really see Trump as a threat to democracy. They find January 6, 2021, to be completely disqualifying. They view Republicans as an existential threat to abortion rights, trans rights, etc.
Republicans really see the Democrats as a threat to democracy. They find the Summer riots of 2020 and the Harris-Walz efforts to help the rioters disqualifying. They view Democrats as an existential threat to their religious practices, their families, and their way of life.
Independents hate them all. They hate grocery prices and high gas prices. They do not like Donald Trump. They do not know Kamala Harris, but they know the Biden-Harris Administration, and they do not like it. They prefer Trump’s policies, but they do not like him.
For the next 42 days, Harris must remain an enigma so independents do not fully connect her to Biden’s policies. Meanwhile, Trump needs to focus on groceries, taxes, and illegal aliens.
Trump is probably winning Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. The question is and has always been Pennsylvania. A pollster told me that Trump could not get above 48% in his private polls in Pennsylvania, no matter how often he conducts them. However, there is a Republican surge in voter registration there, but the Trump ground game in Pennsylvania is non-existent.
In a close election, a ground game matters. In a tied race, it is everything. That may come back to haunt Trump’s team. But, with 42 days to go, events can change things. With the Middle East heating up and recession indicators flashing despite interest rate cuts, you still have to give the advantage to Trump. Just about any event that happens will implicate the Biden-Harris Administration, not Trump.
However it winds up in forty-two days, the loser will claim it was stolen. And off we’ll go to midterms.
