Dodging the Super-Minority: How Lori, Kelly, and Rebecca Teamed Up to Defy the Odds

(Chuck Muth) – Here’s an “insider” look at some numbers related to the recently concluded legislative races you won’t find anywhere else.
 
Republicans needed to flip one seat in the State Senate to stay out of super-minority status and flip one seat in the State Assembly to get out of the super-minority.  They got ‘em – but that’s all they got.
 
Interestingly, both flips occurred in the same geographical area in Clark County.
 
The way district lines are drawn in Nevada, there are two Assembly seats nested within each Senate seat. 
 
And the Senate seat that was flipped from Democrat to Republican was District 11 in southwest Clark County.  It was flipped by Republican Lori Rogich.
 
OK, let’s go to the scoreboard…
 
In 2020 – during the last presidential election cycle, when voter turnout is traditionally higher – the Republican candidate for SD11 only received 21,578 votes (41.45%).  He lost by 8,907 votes
 
In 2024, Lori hauled in 37,668 votes (50.71%).  She won by 1,053 and boosted the GOP vote percentage by almost ten points!  Yee-haw!!
 
Now let’s look at the two Assembly seats that fell within SD11…
 
Assembly District 35 was the only Assembly seat Republicans flipped – which got them out of the super-minority. 
 
It was an “open” seat because scandal-plagued Democrat incumbent Assemblywoman Michelle Gorelow opted not to run again after an ethics complaint was filed against her and made front-page news.
 
In 2020, the Republican candidate for AD35 received 21,927 votes (47.59%).  He lost by 2,221.
 
In 2024, the Republican candidate, Dr. Rebecca Edgeworth, received 21,140 votes (54.32%).  She crushed her opponent by 3,366 votes even though the overall raw GOP vote total for the district dropped by 787 votes, likely because of redistricting.
 
The other Assembly District nested within SD11 was District 8 – a much more Democrat district which the “experts” dismissed as not being competitive.
 
But as the GOP candidate, Kelly Chapman, noted in her written campaign plan that was shared with prospective donors last spring…
 
     “The GOP’s best opportunity to ‘flip’ a Democrat seat in the State Senate – and thus protect the governor’s veto in the upper house – is Lori Rogich in Senate District 11.  AD8 is nested within SD11, so every improvement Kelly makes in her district will help Rogich in her Senate race.”
 
So how’d Kelly do even though she didn’t win the seat?
 
Well, in 2020, the Republican candidate received 12,684 votes (41.66%).  He lost by 5,077 votes.
 
In 2024, Kelly received 16,275 votes (46.42%) and came up short by 2,512 votes – which was HALF of what the GOP candidate lost by four years earlier.
 
And not only did she slice the loss margin in half, she also boosted the raw number of overall GOP votes in the district by a whopping 3,591.  All without being able to afford to do a single mailer.
 
If she hadn’t overperformed at that level in her Assembly district, it would have been much tougher to flip SD11. 
 
Clearly, Lori’s Senate campaign helped Kelly’s Assembly campaign and Kelly’s Assembly campaign helped Lori’s Senate campaign. 
 
Lori, Kelly, and Rebecca also campaigned together, talked with each other, worked with each other, and shared resources as a team throughout the election. 
 
And this is the part so many party leaders and “experts,” suffering from short-term tunnel vision, miss:  You gotta look long-term and at the overall big picture, including developing a “farm team.”
 
Yes, Kelly’s race was always going to be tough – just like Republican Erica Neely’s race against Democrat Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager, which she only lost by two percent.
 
But strategically, the GOP should have invested more in both races, even though they were tough, because any improvement at the Assembly level – even if not victorious – would help other candidates and campaigns up-and-down the ballot.
 
In Erica’s case, had she gotten a little more financial support earlier – donors had only contributed a total of $777 through June 30^th – she likely would have scared Yeager down to his skivvies. 
 
Probably enough that he wouldn’t have spent so much time and money trying to take out other GOP Assembly candidates since he would have had to focus on saving his own bacon.
 
In fact, let’s take a look at the funding for these three Assembly races.
 
Edgeworth, through September 30 (the last campaign report available), raised an impressive and staggering $432,269 – the most for any of the Tier 1 or Tier 2 battleground districts.
 
By comparison, donors and the party establishment only fueled Kelly with $34,179 and Erica with $29,098 through the end of September. 
 
Imagine what they could have done – considering the quality of the grassroots races they ran despite their severely limited budgets – with just a little bit more funding.
 
Again, GOP candidates in these battleground districts don’t need a boatload of money, but they do need to raise ENOUGH money – and have a viable campaign plan and path to victory.
 
One final point…
 
As I’ve written before, it’s not the best candidate who wins, but the best campaign. 
 
Kelly and Erica, running pure bootstrap campaigns, did a helluva lot more with a helluva lot less than others who weren’t successful with comparative big bucks behind them.  Their messaging, strategy, and implementation were simply better.
 
Future candidates should consult with these two to find out what they did and how they did it rather than some “professional” consultants who consistently tank winnable races.
 
Live and learn, baby.  Onward to 2026!
 
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
 
“Nevadans would be better off if (Democrat Nevada Attorney General) @AaronDFordNV focused on combatting fentanyl and smash-and-grab crimes. Instead, he helped pass AB 236, a failed law that made both of those problems worse.” – Better Nevada PAC on Ford’s threat to combat Trump’s agenda even though Trump won in a landslide
 
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views and blogs at MuthsTruths.com.  His views are his own.