At the start of the new Congress, Republicans can’t afford to lose a single House vote. Just one resignation or defection could cost them the majority.
WASHINGTON—The final federal contest of the 2024 election was the race in California’s 13th District in the San Francisco Bay Area for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. In that race, Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) conceded to the Democratic Party’s nominee Adam Gray, who was declared the winner on Dec. 4 by a margin of just 187 votes.
It was the last of several pickups in the House of Representatives for Democrats—who gained new seats across California as well as in Oregon, Alabama, Louisiana, and New York—in an otherwise dismal election year for their party.
The GOP, by contrast, lost far more than one House seat. Despite a decisive victory in the presidential election, the party is in perpetual danger of losing its House majority.
Overall, House Republicans won 220 seats in the 2024 elections, giving them a slim majority of three in the 435-member House. Due to planned resignations, this majority will shrink by the same number—three—in the first few weeks of the new 119th Congress, leaving Republicans with 217 members.
As a result, the GOP will temporarily lose its majority in the early weeks of the new Congress, and the loss or defection of even one member could shift control of the House to the Democrats.
Resignations, Special Elections
Most of the Republicans leaving the House have been selected by President-elect Donald Trump for jobs in the Executive Branch during his administration. Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) of Florida’s 6th District will leave to become the U.S. national security adviser. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) of New York’s 21st District will be nominated to serve as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Both are positions with cabinet rank.
Waltz and Stefanik have been elected to the 119th Congress and will take their seats in the body on Jan. 3, 2025, when the new Congress takes office. Waltz will resign on Jan. 20 to assume his cabinet role, an appointment that does not require the advice and consent of the Senate, while Stefanik will likely resign if the Senate votes favorably on her confirmation.
A third departure will be made by former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) of Florida’s 1st District, who resigned from the 118th Congress on Nov. 13. He will decline to accept his seat in the 119th Congress, to which he has been elected.
Gaetz was Trump’s nominee for U.S. attorney general until Nov. 21, when he withdrew following allegations of sexual misconduct leveled against him, which were being investigated by the House Ethics Committee at the time of his resignation.
The process of holding special elections to fill vacancies in the districts of Waltz, Stefanik, and Gaetz will begin after they formally terminate their membership in the House.
While each represents a heavily Republican seat, there is no guarantee that Republicans will win those races. If Democrats prevail in these special elections—or in any others that arise during the 119th Congress—they could solidify the zero-seat majority that leaves the GOP with no margin for defections.
While unlikely, history has shown that parties can lose safe seats in circumstances of divided government, where that seat is necessary for secure control.
In 2010, Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) won a special election to succeed the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, a Democrat, in the Democrat stronghold of Massachusetts after campaigning on the promise of preventing a Democratic supermajority in the Senate. His victory reduced the Democratic Party’s 60-seat filibuster-proof majority to 59 seats, complicating the passage of the Affordable Care Act (also known as “Obamacare”) that year.
‘Nothing to Spare’
Even if Republicans win back all three seats in special elections, their 3-seat majority will imperil Republicans’ ability to pass any major legislation opposed by factions within the conference.
“Do the math. We have nothing to spare,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said at a Dec. 4 press conference.
Defections among the narrow 5-seat Republican majority during the 118th Congress produced many defeats for the conference. The defection of eight Republicans, led by Gaetz, prompted the removal of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy from office on Oct. 3, 2023, through a motion to vacate the chair.
Similarly, defections within the conference defeated several key measures on the House floor, such as the first attempt to impeach U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, and the Legislative Branch Appropriations Bill for Fiscal Year 2025.
Ideological differences among House Republicans on critical issues, such as government spending, will persist in the new Congress. If just a handful of Republican opponents vote “Nay” or “Present” on a partisan bill, it could fail due to the expected unanimous opposition from Democrats.
“I’ve never voted against my conscience,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) wrote in a Dec. 4 post on social media channel X, regarding the narrow majority.
Burchett voted to remove McCarthy and is a member of the House Freedom Caucus, a fiscally conservative group whose demands for heavy spending cuts have led them to defect from the majority on several questions.
As with the 118th Congress, House Republicans may be forced to seek support from members of the Democratic Party for must-pass legislation, particularly for annual government funding. Demands in exchange for their support could significantly undermine conservative policy goals pursued by the Trump administration.
“The House Republican Majority will be historically narrow. There is no mandate to jam far right policies down the throats of the American people. House Democrats will not let that happen,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) wrote in a Nov. 27 post on X.
“It’s clear the incoming House Republican majority will not be able to do much without us,” he said at a Dec. 6 press conference.