by Geoffrey Ingersoll
WAR.
Yes, a new one is happening in at least a small part of the world. I’m here today in part to give you my two on what’s true, what’s bull, and where we stand in all this.
Let’s get to it …
DONALD TRUMP’S SHYLOCK
It was around 11 p.m. when Tucker Carlson’s phone rang.
I know this because I was sitting across from him at the time at his favorite steak place in Washington, D.C.
The man on the other end of the line kept it brief and Tucker kept it cordial, voicing his opinion calmly, despite the fact that I knew he was seething. At around 10 that night, just as Tucker was wrapping his show on Fox, Trump had launched 59 tomahawk missiles at an airstrip in Syria where suspected chemical weapons attacks had been sourced.
I’m not going to get into detail about the veracity of the intelligence leading to the strikes. I’m also not going to detail the conversation Tucker had right there in front of me with Trump, or the conversation we had afterward about the strikes. Tucker and I have always differed by degrees when it comes to national security.
I wouldn’t call myself a full-blown, Democracy-building Neo Con – to be honest I hate that sh*t, tremendous waste – but to be totally forthright, I’m definitely a “speak softly, big stick” kind of guy.
You know who else is, despite his base being viciously critical of even slight military exertion?
Donald Trump.
Trump is perhaps the closest approximation of Teddy Roosevelt’s foreign policy since Roosevelt himself. We know this to be true. He’s constantly stressing the importance of deal-making. He’s doing it right now!
Even so, he smoked Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. He’s killed more Russians than any president since Reagan. He recently flattened Houthi real estate.
As far as extremely limited, extremely violent reminders of who’s boss, Trump is perfectly willing.
But he knows his base is not. Every time, they shriek about World War III, and so far, every time they’ve been wrong. (I say this knowing that it only takes being right once for the world to change forever, so I’m not without self-awareness.)
Which brings me to Israel’s strikes on Iran.
Israel launched a blitz of strikes on Iran on Thursday. If initial reports are accurate, they took out the leader of the IRGC, several key officers, and scientists central to Iran’s nuclear program.
They’ve since boasted that they accomplished what took “a week” to do to Hezbollah, to Iran “in 10 minutes.”
There are two ways to interpret Israel launching these strikes.
The story from the White House right now is that American diplomats were set to talk to Iran again Sunday. Israel was supposed to wait until a potential deal was either reached or not.
Instead, Israel launched strikes, preempting Trump’s peace talks.
Saagar Enjeti, the smartest guy I know when it comes to foreign policy, has called Israel’s actions a “slap in the face” to Trump. That interpretation is likely to rule the day among National Conservative and MAGA intellectuals. Israel was out of line and we should hold them at arm’s length.
That interpretation also keeps Trump’s hands clean with his most supportive political elements.
There is, of course, another interpretation: We’ve all been wagged.
The public statements and even the supposed peace talks were just a clever ruse to appease Trump’s base and to misinform and misdirect Tehran.
It’s possible, if not probable, that Trump was in the loop the whole time. It could be that Trump gave Israel the go to collect the debt.
And let me tell you, Dear Reader, the debt is pretty great. Trump’s accounting is surely keen.
Iran bombed US troops in Iraq under Trump. Backed militants who launched attacks on them. Before Trump’s time, they took American money Obama gave them, hoping naively they’d behave.
Even as Trump has said he doesn’t want Israel to “ruin” the peace talks, he’s also vowed to never let Iran develop nukes.
So it’s possible Trump pulled the shylock aside and said, look, I’m going to make it out like this whole thing is about talk, but in the meantime … action.
As they say, time will tell. Iran has vowed to strike back, but the intelligence failure on their part is perhaps the most embarrassing national security disaster since Moscow failed to take Kiev.
Meanwhile, Sec. of State Marco Rubio has issued a statement distancing the US from the strikes. Trump is taking the opportunity to do the same, with a caveat that despite the US being uninvolved, Israel has US-made weapons.
“Certain Iranian hardliner’s spoke bravely,” he said of the failed peace talks. “They are all DEAD now, and it will only get WORSE.”
“Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction. JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE!”
I guess I should say at this point that there are certain people celebrating all this and I find that to be absolutely grotesque. It’s a tragedy when speaking softly fails to achieve the desired outcome. It’s with heavy hearts that we should dispatch hell on earth, even against our deepest enemies. The lack of reverence in some corners makes me sick to my stomach.
Even if Trump is wagging us all, as I suspect, and even if he gave the go, I know he of all people has that reverence. He wants to see an end to all this.
Let’s pray he succeeds.
