Republican presidential contender Nikki Haley recently told a group of voters that New Hampshire would have the chance to “correct” the results of the Iowa caucuses. Aside from the odd-seeming concession of defeat at a time when her campaign is surging nationally, this isn’t a particularly odd sentiment. As early as 1988, Gov. John H. Sununu quipped “Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents.”
But is this true? If we look at the results of the Hawkeye State caucuses dating back to 1976 (when presidential primaries were in full swing), Iowa’s record in selecting the Republican nominee is indeed spotty.
That year, incumbent President Gerald Ford defeated former California Gov. (and future president) Ronald Reagan. Ford also won New Hampshire. But the narrowness of the incumbent president’s wins foreshadowed a long, drawn-out primary battle.
In 1980, George H.W. Bush upset Reagan in the Iowa caucuses. In this case, New Hampshire did seem to “correct” the results, as a strong debate performance from Reagan led to his overwhelming win in the Granite State and his march to the nomination.
Eight years later, it was a battle of vice-presidential candidates, as Bush squared off against Sen. Bob Dole, Ford’s 1976 running mate. Bush came in third in 1988, finishing behind Dole (a result that could be written off to Dole’s midwestern ties) and televangelist Pat Robertson (a result that could not be so easily dismissed). Bush’s win in New Hampshire helped to right the ship.
But four years after that, it was the primaries that yielded the odd result. Pat Buchanan’s strong 37% showing in 1992 hinted at deep problems for the incumbent president, who would fail to clear 75% of the vote in a primary until mid-March. But New Hampshire didn’t really “correct” Iowa that year, as the Iowa caucuses were canceled.
In 1996 Dole won Iowa again, but Buchanan won in New Hampshire. Dole got just 26% of the vote, narrowly leading Education Secretary Lamar! Alexander’s 22%. The exclamation point campaign gimmick notwithstanding, Dole went on to win the overwhelming majority of the remaining primaries, however; that time New Hampshire was a bust. Four years onward, New Hampshire once again got it wrong, picking John McCain over George W. Bush.
Since then, New Hampshire has been on a good run. In 2008, it breathed new life into McCain’s campaign, after Iowa had thrown its support to Mike Huckabee. In 2012, Rick Santorum won the caucuses, finishing in a near-dead heat with Mitt Romney, but New Hampshire went for Romney, who was ultimately the nominee. Finally, in 2016, Ted Cruz won Iowa, but New Hampshire voted for eventual winner Donald Trump.
So it is a bit of a mixed bag for New Hampshire. Overall, we’d have to say that it does tend to curb Iowa’s excesses, especially of late. But there are notable exceptions. Nikki Haley may well win New Hampshire (though, in fairness, Trump still leads there by about 20 points). That doesn’t mean her campaign will be remembered as a corrective; it could well remain an exception.
–Sean Trende
