by Kristina Karisch
Welcome to the 2024 primary season. Today marks caucus day in Iowa, officially kicking off the nominating contests for November’s presidential election.
IT’S LOOKING TO BE A SNOWY ONE. Iowa has been hit with the Arctic blast and ensuing blizzard pummeling much of the Midwest. The Hawkeye State is expected to have its coldest caucuses ever, and its coldest January day in at least five years, today — with subzero temperatures and wind chills as low as minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit. Candidates pared back their schedules over the weekend and campaigns were left grappling with questions about whether people will turn out amid record-low temperatures.
With former President Trump holding a nearly 30-point lead in the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll before the caucuses, the contest is his to lose. Polling averages from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ show Trump leading his nearest rival by 35 percentage points. Trump has been bolstered by support from evangelical Christians, first-time caucusgoers and registered Republicans — and, crucially, considering the subzero temperatures, the backing of the most enthusiastic and committed likely caucusgoers.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a Trump ally, says it will be all over if Trump wins Iowa by 13 points, which would set a record in a competitive GOP presidential caucus in the state (The Hill).
Flashback: When Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) beat Trump in Iowa back in 2016, Trump said he “stole” his victory.
▪ The Washington Post: “Ordained by God”: Trump’s legal problems galvanize Iowa evangelicals.
▪ The New York Times: Blue-collar white voters make up Trump’s base. But his political resurgence has been fueled largely by Republicans from the other end of the socioeconomic scale.
▪ The Hill: Immigration is a top-tier issue for Iowa caucusgoers.
IOWA IS ESPECIALLY CRITICAL for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who has poured resources into the state, spending months meeting with voters in all 99 counties. While he has in recent weeks tried to manage expectations, strategists have suggested anything short of a strong second-place finish would be devastating for the Florida governor. A Suffolk University Political Research Center poll released Thursday showed former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley leading DeSantis in Iowa by 7 points.
▪ The Hill: DeSantis looks to fellow veterans for much-needed Iowa boost.
▪ The Wall Street Journal: As Trump dominates in Iowa, Haley has her eye on New Hampshire.
Haley herself has put less stock in Iowa and instead pinned her hopes on New Hampshire and its Jan. 23 primary. She has been gaining ground in the Granite State, and new polling suggests Trump’s support there has slipped slightly in recent months.
The fact is, because the primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are so different, winning in both would represent solid control and really complete dominance over the Republican Party,” said Republican strategist Brian Seitchik, arguing “this thing is over” if Trump wins the two early states (The Hill).
The Hill’s Caroline Vakil breaks down five key things to know before caucusing kicks off tonight.
3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY
- As winter storms and freezing temperatures sweep the country, here’s why the definition of “extreme cold” is different in Duluth and Dallas.
- Veterans of former President Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign have quietly raised worries that President Biden’s reelection operation is too bare-bones.
- 2023 was the hottest year on record. A new analysis shows 2023 exceeded 1.5C of warming on average for the first time, a key limit in the Paris Climate Agreement.
BIDEN IS SEARCHING FOR A WINNING MESSAGE on the 2024 campaign trail, one that is not overly reliant on attacks on Trump and the risks of putting him back in the White House. Biden is clearly energized and comfortable taking the fight to Trump, but his campaign and Democratic allies acknowledge a fear of Trump returning to the White House will not be enough on its own to win Biden another term (The Hill).
“It’s part of a winning message, but it’s only part of a winning message,” said Jim Kessler, a co-founder of the center-left group Third Way. “I think job number one is for voters to actually feel good about Joe Biden and to feel better about the economy and the direction the country is heading, and to feel that some of the major issues they’re concerned about are being addressed to their satisfaction.”
