With seven weeks to go before the start of Washington state’s next legislative session, party leaders are drawing battle lines for facing a projected budget shortfall.
Democrats retain strong majorities in the House and Senate, as well as control of the governor’s mansion and every other statewide elected office. Sen. Jamie Pedersen, D-Seattle, is the new majority leader. Sen. Manka Dhingra, D-Redmond, is the deputy majority leader.
As previously reported by The Center Square, state officials have recently started referencing an anticipated budget gap of between $10 billion and $12 billion over the next four years, which they blame on a decline in revenue and ballooning costs for state services.
With Democrats in control of the purse strings, new taxes to narrow the gap are already being discussed, and Republican leaders are preparing to oppose them.
“It’s important we recognize how we got here,” Rep. Drew Stokesbary, R-Auburn, emailed The Center Square Wednesday morning.
Stokesbary, who has been reelected House minority leader, said Democrats have made bad spending choices.
“Rather than admit their errors and undo some of their recent spending increases, Democrats want to cover for their mistakes by raising new taxes that will harm the economy,” he explained.
Rep. Chris Corry, R-Yakima, who was elected deputy minority leader, echoed those comments.
“It is true we are going into a budget deficit, but it is not that we are having revenue falloffs; it’s mostly driven by overspending,” Corry said during a Tuesday phone interview.
He went on to note, “We’ve got a variety of programs that are entitlements that were intentionally delayed, so they’d get passed in prior years and now those are coming due.”
Raises for state workers also play into the projected shortfall.
“Another piece of this is a massive pay increase that Gov. Jay Inslee has signed off on in negotiations with the unions,” Corry said. “It’s about $3 billion of the projected shortfall in just paying for those union raises.”
Earlier this month, Pedersen told The Seattle Times lawmakers may explore a wealth tax in the upcoming session.
During this year’s session, lawmakers were unsuccessful in passing legislation to create a property tax on financial assets valued above $250 million.
Corry does not believe a wealth tax is constitutional.
“Like in a year where there’s a recession and the wealthy lose money, are we giving revenues back to them because their wealth shrunk?” Corry asked. “It’s class warfare.”
Corry said the rejection of three of the four initiatives on the Nov. 5 ballot apparently sent the wrong message to Democrats.
“I don’t think they understand that a large reason why they failed is because of the ability of the attorney general to rewrite the ballot title as well as the fiscal impact statements,” Corry said.
The attorney general writes ballot measure titles and summaries.
A 2022 law requires a financial impact statement if a ballot measure repeals, levies or modifies a tax or fee, and if it would cause a net change in state revenue.
Democrats are also rumored to be considering another run at property taxes, allowing local governments to go above the 1% cap on annual increases.
Republicans were successful in beating back Senate Bill 5770, sponsored by Pedersen, during the 2024 session.
“I would imagine we’re going to have an even more emotionally charged battle over it,” Corry predicted. “We’ve got some new members in the Democrat party who are even further to the left.”
Despite enduring Democrat majorities, Corry said he’s hopeful Republicans can take the opportunity to refocus state government’s priorities.
“That means cutting spending, which is what families all across Washington are being forced to do,” he said.
Other leaders chosen by House Republicans include Rep. Peter Abbarno of Centralia as caucus chair and Rep. April Connors of Kennewick as floor leader.
Rep. Travis Couture of Allyn and Rep. Skyler Rude of Walla Walla will serve as assistant floor leaders. Rep. Dan Griffey, also of Allyn, was reelected as whip.
Senate Democrats reelected Sen. Bob Hasegawa, D-Tukwila, to serve as majority caucus chair.
The 105-day 2025 legislative session begins Jan. 13.
