“I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president.”
“The greatest good we can do our country is to heal its party divisions and make them one people.” —Thomas Jefferson (1801)
No sooner had I written last week, “Have Demos Finally Discovered the Biden/Harris Problem?,” than The Washington Post began raising serious questions about what appears to be a very feeble reelection campaign. Or are they just playing along with the Demos’ “Biden feint” strategy — knowing he is not going to be the candidate?
Ten months ago, I got howls from some folks when I speculated, “It’s Official — Biden Is (NOT) Running in 2024.”
How did I reach that conclusion?
For some contextual background on that nutty assertion, I spent more than two decades periodically working with military officers who were transitioning from tactical to strategic commands. That involved further development of strategic analytical skillsets to supplement their outstanding tactical perspective. Only occasionally did that prove to be a challenge for those who have spent their careers in tactical environments. Fact is, we have a lot of very bright tactical and strategic military commanders — who are often hamstrung by inept civilian “leaders” like, oh, say, Joe Biden.
Similar strategic analytical skillsets apply when considering political strategies, including consideration of what the Democrat Party’s plan is for 2024 — and thus, my assertion about Biden’s 2024 candidacy.
In retrospect, reaching that conclusion seems more obvious by the day. Biden’s average approval polling remains deep under water, though it’s about where Donald Trump polled at this point in his third year. Notably, Biden’s disapproval now is 3% better than that of Trump then. Biden has been mired in that polling ditch for more than a year.
Biden’s polling gets even worse when you break down his approval ratings by specifics: Economy 38%, Crime 36%, Immigration 34.6%, Inflation 33.6%.
Now, I always offer a caveat emptor on polling, based on a concept we coined almost 25 years ago: the “Pollaganda Effect.” That describes the process of using Leftmedia polls as political propaganda.
In short, media outlets accomplish the pollaganda effect by first indoctrinating viewers with “reporting” that reflects a particular bias, then conducting “opinion polls” that, of course, reflect that indoctrination. Then the media uses poll results to proselytize further by treating the results as “news,” which, in turn, induces “bandwagon” psychology — the human tendency of those who do not have a strong ideological foundation to aspire to the side perceived to be in the majority — and thus further drives public opinion toward the original media bias, ad nauseam.
In other words, incestuous polling results are used to manipulate public opinion by advancing the perception that a particular candidate or opinion on an issue enjoys majority support. The Demo/MSM presents such polling as if it were completely objective. The pollaganda process, then, is cyclical and self-fulfilling — rinse and repeat.
Of course, ultimately, the only poll that matters is the one on election day, or at least that used to be true when there was an actual “election day,” before Democrats had mastered their bulk-mail ballot fraud strategy in 2020.
That being said, what about the polling for the 2024 primaries?
Donald Trump is leading the Republican primary with 52% support of Republican voters. No surprise there other than one might expect a defeated populist incumbent to poll higher.
But here is what has Democrats worried about Biden, even though in the 2020 election he received almost seven million more votes than Trump.
Yes, Biden received 51.3% of the popular vote (81,283,501), giving him 306 electoral votes, while Trump received 46.9% of the popular vote (74,223,975) and 232 electoral votes. However, the election was much closer than appearances would imply because Biden’s seven million vote margin was virtually all in California and New York. He actually won the presidency by fewer than 45,000 votes in the key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
That narrow margin, combined with Biden’s terrible polling with Democrat voters ahead of the primary, is why Demos have to get him out of the way. Biden only has 35% support, with cackling Kamala Harris coming in at 9.5%, tied with bumbling Pete Buttigieg and just ahead of socialist Bernie Sanders with 8.8%.
Now, Democrats are very adept at consolidating their collective constituencies, but an incumbent president with only 35% of his party’s support?
There are strong parallels that would suggest an LBJ moment on the horizon.
Political historians will recall that in 1964, after having assumed the presidency a year earlier in the wake of John Kennedy’s assassination, Lyndon Johnson defeated his Republican opponent Barry Goldwater with 61.1% of the popular vote, the biggest landslide win since 1820. But four short years later, given his failing health, combined with his failed domestic and foreign policies, most notably the rapidly expanding Vietnam War, Johnson’s public approval ratings had dropped to 36%.
That led to LBJ’s surprise announcement, as primaries were getting underway, “I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president.” A day later his public approval ratings rose to 49%.
Again, I speculated 10 months ago that Biden would not be the Demo nominee, but I have also asserted that whatever Biden cards Demos are going to play going into this primary, their strategy is predicated on Trump being the nominee. Despite all the pundit chatter to the contrary, their indict Trump strategy is not to take him out, but to ensure he eclipses his closest contender, Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Demos believe that DeSantis poses a greater threat to Biden and his alternates, including hair-gel boy Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama, Robert Kennedy Jr., or maybe even Demo moderate West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin.
They know that DeSantis could launch a resurgence of the strength, dignity, moral clarity, and humility associated with the last great Republican president, Ronald Reagan.
Given all the aforementioned abysmal Biden data, it is not clear why Demos are so certain they can defeat Trump, again, but they most assuredly are.
No, Trump did not win a popular majority in 2016, he lost House and Senate majorities in 2018, and in the 2020 election, he became the first incumbent president since 1932 to lose the presidency while his party lost control of both the House and Senate during his tenure — the latter losses being indicative of a broader and deeper dislike for Trump. Clearly, Trump’s J6 riot baggage is part of their calculus, along with the fact that, despite Biden’s bad polling ahead of the 2022 midterm, Demos managed to turn the Republican “red wave” into an anemic “red ripple.” And there is the age liability — if Trump wins the nomination, he will be older than Reagan was when he left office.
Are all of those Trump liabilities enough for Demos to count on a massive “Fear Trump” voter turnout for another victory in 2024 for whomever their candidate will be?
Finally, what is it that The Washington Post is concerned about this week?
In about six months, the first 2024 primary will be in South Carolina on February 3rd. However, despite the fact that Biden has far more cash on hand than any other candidate, WaPo is concerned about Biden’s “hidden campaign”:
Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, has spent her first months on the job planning a sweeping national reelection effort by squatting in a borrowed office overlooking an Amtrak commuter line on Capitol Hill. With just three other paid staffers, her entire operation cost $1.4 million from April through June — about an eighth of what President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign spent in the same period in 2011, when it operated out of an imposing office suite in Chicago nearly the size of a football field.
Hmmm, Barack Obama spent $10 million at this point in his reelection effort while Biden has spent only $1.4 million? And you may recall that Bidenflation has made everything more expensive, so adjusted for inflation, what Obama spent is closer to $13.5 million at this point in his reelection campaign.
Again, are those actually concerns, or is WaPo just playing along with the Demos’ “Biden feint” strategy — knowing he is not going to be the candidate?
Semper Vigilans Fortis Paratus et Fidelis
Pro Deo et Libertate — 1776
