(Chuck Muth) – Help me out here, please…
Republican Sam Brown is the “anointed one” this time around after successfully raising millions of dollars nationally but still only garnering a third of the GOP primary vote against Adam Laxalt in his Senate bid last year.
Brown played the game well after his loss. He endorsed and actively campaigned for Laxalt in the general election, which surely endeared him to the DC establishment and helped land the endorsement of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) this time.
But there are still concerns that, beyond his compelling war hero narrative, there isn’t much “there” there, while others, including me, criticize the messaging coming from his new team of consultants.
Is he the strongest Republican candidate with the best shot at dethroning Democrat incumbent Sen. “Wacky” Jacky Rosen?
Doubts are being raised. But what about the alternatives?
Jim Marchant is currently considered to be Brown’s closest competitor.
Marchant’s consultants boast that he’s successfully won various GOP primary races in the past. But the fact is he failed to hold his Assembly seat in 2018, lost his congressional race in 2020, and lost his bid for Secretary of State in 2022.
Marchant lost his 2022 statewide race by over 20,000 votes for an office the average voter pays little or no attention to. If he’s the GOP nominee for the high-profile Senate race next year, he’ll again go down in flames.
Marchant has no chance and no business being in this race for this critical Senate seat – and rumors swirled over the weekend that he was dropping out. But his consultants won’t let him. It’s all about the Benjamins for them.
A third candidate, Tony Grady, is probably the best qualified for the job based on his military and private sector background. But his campaign is having trouble raising the money needed to be competitive and has been all but invisible since his launch back in August.
Then there’s Dr. Jeff Gunter, and I really want to know what you think about this…
Gunter was a former Ambassador to Iceland during the Trump administration. And he’s running, unapologetically, as THE “Trump” candidate in the race. Which raises some interesting questions…
Will Trump endorse one of the candidates? If so, who and when? And could his endorsement change the dynamics of the race?
As we saw in 2022, Trump likes to play the odds and is intensely focused on chalking up wins on his scorecard. As such, some folks speculate that he’ll eventually throw his support behind Brown.
On the other hand, Trump despises Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and McConnell is backing Brown. In addition, Brown’s new campaign consultant, Katie Walsh, is said to be on Trump’s sh*t list after leaving his administration amid allegations of being a “leaker.”
So a Trump endorsement of Brown is anything but a sure thing.
Marchant is now pigeon-holed as an “election denier.” While that kills him in the court of public opinion among independent voters, he’s perceived as a loyal lieutenant by Team Trump. Could that land him Trump’s seal of approval?
Not likely. Again, Trump’s primary focus is putting “W’s” on the board. And he doesn’t want to be blamed for losing another Senate seat in Nevada.
For similar reasons, a Trump endorsement of Grady is highly unlikely. Yes, he performed well his first time as a candidate in his GOP primary for lieutenant governor last year. But he has no significant ties to Trump and is struggling to raise dough.
Which brings us to dark-horse candidate Gunter.
Gunter is also known as a loyal supporter of the former president and has a significant amount of his own money to invest to seed his campaign. So my questions to you are…
- What if Gunter passes Marchant and Grady in the race leading up to filing in March and is seen as the alternative to Brown?
- And what if by April or May Trump has sealed up the nomination – though that’s certainly not a given?
- And what if, at some point before the June primary, Trump gives Gunter his patented “complete and total endorsement”?
- Do you think that would that be enough to persuade Trump supporters in Nevada to vote for Gunter over Brown and pull off an upset in the primary?
Gunter believes his positioning as THE “Trump candidate” in the race – with or without the president’s official endorsement – is his path to victory, especially if Trump is the GOP’s nominee.
What do you think? Does his unequivocal embrace of Donald Trump make him a serious, viable contender in Nevada’s GOP primary for the U.S. Senate seat?
Send your thoughts on this to chuck@chuckmuth.com.
7 Worst Habits of Highly Unelectable People
- Picking the wrong race
- Picking the wrong district
- Picking the wrong issues
- Picking the wrong time
- Picking the wrong consultants
- Picking unnecessary fights with the media
- Picking door-knocking over fundraising
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
“I don’t think anybody voted FOR Biden. They were voting AGAINST Trump! That’s why they did it. Let’s just be honest. He energized Democrats. You could have John Kennedy walk through the door right now and he wouldn’t energize Democrats as much as Donald Trump does.” – Ron DeSantis
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views, and founder of CampaignDoctor.com. You can sign up for his conservative, Nevada-focused e-newsletter at MuthsTruths.com. His views are his own.
