(Chuck Muth) – Early voting starts tomorrow but I won’t be voting tomorrow. I’m still undecided on some races.
I’ve previously detailed where I am on the U.S. Senate race, the congressional races, and the state Senate races. Now let’s look at the state Assembly.
Republicans in the Assembly are in a “super-minority” by one seat – meaning Democrats have the 2/3 they need to pass tax hikes and override Gov. Lombardo’s vetoes.
And with the odds being against Republicans in the State Senate holding onto the one seat they need to keep Democrats out of the super-majority there, picking up one or more net seats in the Assembly is crucial to “protect the veto.”
So again, the #1 factor to consider in which GOP candidate to nominate on June 11 is who can win the general election. This is no time for ideological purity tests. It’s all about the math.
Republicans need to pick up at least one seat or risk Gov. Lombardo going into the 2025 session as effectively a “lame duck.” So let’s get to it…
Assembly District 5: Undecided
Republicans will be choosing between Alan Bigelow and Kelly Quinn. Both have run for office before – unsuccessfully. Both regularly attend GOP meetings, and both have attended my campaign training classes.
I honestly don’t know yet which would have the best chance in the general election.
Assembly District 11: Undecided
I don’t know anything about either of the two GOP candidates: Jeffrey Lustick and Anthony Manesa.
Assembly District 12: Undecided
This is my Assembly district. I’ve met both Nancy Roecker and Al Rojas. I’m not set on either yet but am leaning towards Roecker.
Assembly District 16: Socorro Keenan
I’ve never heard of the other two candidates, Benjamin Donlon and James Neville. Keenan has been to my campaign training and has run before. Absent new info on the other two, I’d go with Keenan if the election were held today.
Assembly District 21: April Arndt
Interesting match-up here. Both April Arndt and Jon Petrick have unsuccessfully run before. Arndt has been endorsed by Gov. Lombardo. Petrick is liked by many conservatives.
But when it comes to which candidate would likely have the better shot in November, I gotta go with Arndt.
She recently held a campaign event in a local park that drew hundreds of families from all around the district. And as a former Henderson police detective, she’s got the advantage on the issue of crime, a major issue on the minds of non-partisan voters.
Assembly District 29: Annette Dawson Owens
This one’s a no-brainer. Owens is a solid candidate who’s been endorsed by Gov. Lombardo.
Assembly District 32: Assemblywoman Alexis Hansen
Hansen is the incumbent with a respectable conservative voting record. No reason for Jason Bushey to waste time challenging her in the primary.
Assembly District 34: Brandon Davis
Brandon has run before as a Libertarian in the past but has since switched to the GOP. Solid on the issues with a strong business and marketing background. He’s the best chance to flip this seat and the obvious choice over Clem Ziroli.
Obvious, that is, to everyone but the Assembly Republican Caucus (ARC) which this week voted NOT to endorse Brandon in his primary race because he’s a former Libertarian who has chosen to join the GOP.
You know, like Ron Paul.
Paul was the Libertarian candidate for president in 1988 before switching to the GOP and serving as a Republican member of Congress from 1997 through 2013.
You’d think ARC members would welcome Brandon into the fold like the proverbial prodigal son, especially since they DESPERATELY need to win all the seats they can get.
And you’d be wrong. These people have a political death wish. They make the Keystone Kops look like Green Berets. Just can’t get out of their own way. Go Brandon, GO!
Assembly District 40: P.K. O’Neill
P.K. is the current Assembly Republican Caucus Minority Leader. I have my issues with him. But his opponent, Drew Ribar, has raised exactly ZERO dollars. I can’t take a candidate seriously who doesn’t take his own campaign seriously.
Assembly District 41: Rafael Arroyo
This is another no-brainer. Arroyo is the only candidate with a shot at knocking off gun-grabbing/race-baiting incumbent Democrat Majority Leader Sandra Jauregui and has been endorsed by Gov. Lombardo.
Assembly District 42: Katrin Ivanoff
Ivanov’s GOP opponent, Kevin Child, is a Nevada Republican Central Committee member who has more baggage than a Samsonite factory. He’s a big part of the dysfunction within the Nevada GOP. A true embarrassment.
UPDATE
After hearing from several people whose opinion I know and respect in Washoe County, I’m now recommending Mike Ginsburg in the State Senate District 15 race.
* * *
That’s it for now. Sorry folks, but I just don’t have the time to get into local races right now.
But I will share the recommendations for a few judicial races in Clark County as provided by the Third Branch PAC which is decidedly from the “right” side of the aisle…
- Las Vegas Municipal Court, Department 5: Shannon Nordstrom
- Henderson Justice of the Peace, Department 1: Todd W. Prall
- Henderson Justice of the Peace, Department 2: Barbara Schifalacqua
- Las Vegas Justice of the Peace, Department 2: Ava Natalia Bravo
The Chattah Box Erupts…Again
Thank you to everyone who forwarded me Nevada Republican National Committeewoman Sigal Chattah’s latest diatribe against our Pigpen Project to clean up the voter rolls.
As is her wont, the Chattah-Box got her information and facts all wrong – typical. The most glaring of which is referring to “the Pig Pen Project’s chief counsel, Pauline Lee…”
Ms. Lee isn’t now, nor has she ever been, our chief counsel. She’s been a volunteer on the project who, unlike the loud-mouthed Chattah, has actually been pounding the streets getting non-residency reports signed.
Secondly, we are a non-partisan organization that has been operating in a totally non-partisan fashion. We aren’t a “Republican” organization and don’t take orders from Chattah or the GOP, nor do we coordinate our efforts with them.
Lastly, and just to demonstrate Chattah’s total ignorance of this issue, here’s what she wrote about the 2020 elections…
“Candidates like Stavros Anthony, April Becker, Jim Marchant, and others saw their Election Day leads evaporate when all the mail-in ballots were finally counted, a full week after Election Day.”
Well, duh.
That doesn’t prove anything nefarious took place with the voter lists. By LAW (which a lawyer is supposed to know something about), ballots could be returned by mail up to midnight on Election Day.
And since Democrats made far more use of mail-in ballots than Republicans, OF COURSE more votes arrived by mail for Democrat candidates in the days after Election Day. What a dolt.
You may not agree with the laws as written – I sure don’t. But those are the current rules of the game. That Chattah and others like her don’t understand this is a sad commentary on what passes for “leadership” in the Nevada GOP today.
Don’t blame me. You all elected her.
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views, and founder of CampaignDoctor.com. You can sign up for his conservative, Nevada-focused e-newsletter at MuthsTruths.com. His views are his own.
