President Trump’s budget bill is about to meet the realities of the Senate, where the rules of reconciliation could help Democrats force changes to the bill.
Why it matters: Senate Republicans have been quietly working to ensure Trump’s budget bill gets a clean bill of health from the Senate parliamentarian.
- But GOP leader John Thune is at the mercy of Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, who is the final decision-maker if a given provision can pass the “Byrd bath,” named for the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.).
- The process Senate Republicans are using only allows for budget-related items in the bill, in exchange for being able to pass with just 51 votes. Any policies deemed unrelated to the budget will be excised.
- Top Senate Dems are planning an aggressive push to strip out a wide array of policies from the reconciliation package, sources told us.
Zoom in: Sources from both parties pointed to these issues as some of the likely major fights to come in the Senate over the reconciliation package.
- The REINS Act would significantly boost congressional authority to review and stop federal regulations. Republicans are expecting a fight to convince the parliamentarian that it is budget-related, sources told us.
- Gender-affirming care: The House bill would prevent the use of Medicaid to cover gender-affirming care. Democrats plan to argue this is more about a political agenda than making changes to the federal budget.
- AI moratorium: The House bill includes a 10-year ban on state laws regulating artificial intelligence.
- Energy permitting: The House-passed bill includes an expedited permitting process for certain natural gas energy pipeline projects, capping all federal and state review periods to a maximum of one year.
- Immigration fees: Democrats may also try to push back on the bill’s major fees for asylum seekers, arguing it is more about deterrence than a genuine revenue raiser.