Good morning, it’s Jan. 9, 2024, just six days from the Iowa caucuses. If that snuck up on you, you’re not alone, and there are several reasons for it — four that come to mind readily.
The first is that they are early this year. In 2020 and 2016, Iowa held its caucuses in the first week of February. And while it’s true that in the two Barack Obama election years they were even earlier than now (Jan. 3), mid-February was when they took place from 1984, my first year on the campaign trail, until 2000.
Second, only one political party is competing, and in the other party, the prohibitive frontrunner refuses to debate. There’s not as much to cover as usual.
Third, as my colleagues Tom Bevan and Sean Trende have pointed out, there is a dearth of polling from Iowa this year. I expect that will change, perhaps today, but we haven’t gotten much new data since mid-December. So any surprising story lines are well hidden.
Is Nikki Haley closing the gap on Donald Trump, as she’s doing in New Hampshire? Is all the money Ron DeSantis spent in Iowa making a dent in Trump’s support? Is Vivek Ramaswamy this year’s version of Rick Santorum?
Ah yes, Santorum. The absence of polling inhibits “horse race” news coverage, which we are counseled to avoid, but I can’t resist this one analogy: In 2012, the underfunded and outgunned social conservative and former Pennsylvania senator employed retail politics that took him to every county in Iowa. In near-last place in early December, Santorum closed with a ferocious stretch run — just as Animal Kingdom had done in the previous spring’s Kentucky Derby — to nip heavily favored Mitt Romney at the wire.
Finally, the reason Iowa may not be on your radar as much as usual is the stagnant nature of the 2024 election season, at least so far. The Democrats have all but outlawed any primary challenge to President Biden, and every time former President Trump is indicted or barred from a ballot or sued, weirdly he rises in the polls.
Trump won’t be campaigning in Iowa today: Apparently, he’s going to be a D.C. courtroom in yet another lawfare battle. But under the theory that Mother Nature is not happy with us, a polar vortex is bringing frigid and near-blizzard conditions to Iowa today, forcing Haley to cancel a planned event and stranding DeSantis in Florida for the time being.
Here in the nation’s capital, we’re just getting cold rain today. Supply your own metaphor. On that note, please let me direct you to RCP’s front page, which contains the latest poll averages, political news and video, and aggregated opinion pieces ranging across the ideological spectrum. We also offer the usual complement of original material from our stable of columnists and contributors:
RCP Takeaway. Emily Jashinsky joins Tom Bevan, Andy Walworth, and me to discuss President Biden’s campaign strategy, Donald Trump’s chances at the Supreme Court, and the countdown to Iowa and New Hampshire.
Trump, DeSantis, and Fauci. RCP White House correspondent Phil Wegmann reports on the former president’s unwavering support from his base as they deflect DeSantis’ criticisms of the former president by pointing the finger at his medical adviser.
O, Wonder! Take a Moment To Smell the Roses. RCP columnist J. Peder Zane reminds us of the best way to start healing our broken world — and ourselves. (A point of personal privilege: If you read one column on our site today, read this one.)
Claudine Gay Is Only Digging Deeper. Victor Davis Hanson submits that a sincere and humble apology would have gone a long way toward restoring goodwill for and trust in Harvard’s president.
Instructing Palestinian Schoolchildren in Jihad. Peter Berkowitz asserts that education both in the Middle East and in the U.S. must return to a mission of transmitting knowledge and away from hard-left indoctrination.
Countering Historical Myths of the Palestinian Experience. At RealClearWorld, Robert Cherry writes about the origins of the Middle Eastern conflict and the people of the region.
Instead of Pushing Christie Out, GOP Should Use Ranked-Choice Voting. Saul Anuzis and Stan Lockhart make the case for revamping the Republican primary and giving voters a real choice.
Five Facts on the Border. At RealClearPolicy, the team at No Labels breaks down the top issues driving the country’s immigration crisis and how to stem the flow of migrants.
More Illegal Immigrants Gain Access to Free Health Care. At RealClearHealth, Grace-Marie Turner asserts that California’s newest entitlement is an open invitation to those crossing the border and puts even greater strains on the medical workforce.
Department of Education Devalues Innovation. Also at RealClearPolicy, Andrew Langer decries the weaponization of institutional policies that stifle growth and improvement.
When Did Republicans Start Favoring Cronies Over Entrepreneurs? At RealClearMarkets, Christopher Baecker laments that the party of free enterprise is veering off course.
New Report Highlights Green Failure in Europe. At RealClearEnergy, Rick Whitbeck writes that recent setbacks in the EU’s decarbonization efforts should serve as a warning to America.
Classical Charter School Under Fire for Teaching All Kids To Read. At RealClearEducation, Jed Hartings highlights the education establishment’s coordinated attacks to stifle competition by aiming at successful alternatives.
Should Lloyd Austin Resign? Joe Buccino, writing for RealClearDefense, insists that the Defense secretary’s decision not to disclose the seriousness of his medical condition makes his departure mandatory.
Is America the “New” Great Britain? Also at RCDefense, Francis Sempa, provides a critique of the decline of U.S. maritime power and how it could enable China to emerge as the next super power in world politics.
Carl M. Cannon