By Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch
In a race to the wire, Vice President Harris will return to Pennsylvania today after focusing on younger voters in Michigan Sunday where she touted “momentum.” Former President Trump returns today to North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania after campaigning Sunday in the Tar Heel State and Georgia.
The usually-jaunty former president conceded Sunday to ABC News that he could lose. “I think I have a pretty substantial lead,” Trump said. “But, you could say, yeah, yeah, you could lose. Bad things could happen. You know, things happen, but it’s going to be interesting.”
More than 78 million people have voted early. Millions more are expected to cast ballots by Tuesday. Quality polls in the last days of a suspenseful, wildly unpredictable election hint at some surprises ahead.
Harris appears to have slim leads in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in Arizona. But in seven swing states, the results remain within the margin of sampling error, meaning neither candidate has a definitive lead. Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania are basically tied, which helps explain the states in which the candidates are barnstorming through rewinds of their speeches and get-out-the-vote appeals on the final day.
Many of Trump’s supporters — emboldened by the former president’s false claims of election fraud in 2020 and unverified assertions of interference in this contest — express confidence the former president will return to the White House come January. His supporters’ views that the country is on the wrong track, coupled with trust in Trump’s ability to handle the economy, have buoyed his candidacy since he was selected to be his party’s nominee. That was true for Trump in poll after poll, whether pitted against President Biden or Harris.
But Harris’s backers are just as eager to bet the vice president will win with persuasive messaging that took advantage of her opponent’s self-inflicted distractions in the homestretch and a ground operation that profited from record-setting campaign cash. “We are currently on pace to turn out the voters we need to get to 50%+1 in each battleground state,” Harris campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon told supporters in a Sunday email.
The Hill: Republicans are primed to back Trump if he contests election results, and that includes in Congress. “The Senate is 100 percent aligned with the rest of the party, even more so when it comes to ensuring a fair vote in the swing states,” said John Ullyot, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide and former Trump administration official.
One factor to watch nationwide: An emerging gender gap. The trusted Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Saturday found Harris with a late-breaking lead against Trump in a state he handily won twice. Female voters appear to be an advantage for the vice president there.
▪ The Hill: Harris and Trump each see paths to victory: “Every poll is ridiculously close.”
▪ NBC News poll: The network’s final national survey results released Sunday found a tied contest, 49 percent of registered voters for Harris and 49 percent for Trump.
▪ CBS News’s battleground tracker put Harris ahead in the Electoral College tally as of Sunday (226 to Trump’s potential 219).
The election forecast model by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill on Sunday gave Trump a 54 percent chance of winning the presidency.
Catch up on behind-the-scenes reporting:
▪ The Atlantic: Inside the ruthless, restless final days of Trump’s campaign.
▪ The Wall Street Journal: Trump campaign manager Susie Wiles, the Florida power broker who guided the GOP’s chance at a return to the White House.
▪ The Wall Street Journal: Trump transition chief Howard Lutnick consults with Elon Musk, Jared Kushner and Wall Street about potential personnel picks for the White House and federal departments.
▪ The Hill: If Trump gets a second term, his vows for revenge would face few limitations. ▪ The New York Times: The many links between Project 2025 and Trump’s world (published Oct. 22 and again Sunday with graphics).
