Erick-Woods Erickson
Incumbency has advantages. If I were forced to call the election, I would give Joe Biden a slight edge. He has more money. Biden has more likely voters as the voter pool reduces to likely voters. It is something Republicans miss. The more often a person has voted in the past eight years, the more likely that person is to vote for Joe Biden. Voters who voted in 2024 give Biden a six-point advantage in multiple polls.
The numbers may be wrong. But the trend is holding. That is why, if I were a Biden supporter, I would be spooked.
In the latest CNN poll, Trump is winning among registered voters, and it really is not close. Trump has 49% and Biden has 43%. Add in multiple candidates, including Robert Kennedy, and Trump still beats Biden.
Every major media poll reflects the most notable trend, which is the biggest red flag for the Democrats: more Americans view Trump’s tenure in office favorably than they do Joe Biden’s present administration. Trump is more popular now than when he left office despite a concerted effort by both the Democrats and their friends in the press to vilify him.
The economy remains the biggest issue.
But Biden is getting hurt by his policies about Israel, too. The left may not be happy with him, but independents, moderates, and others lean toward supporting Israel, and they are angry with Biden.
Only a third of Americans like Biden’s handling of the economy. Only slightly more than a quarter are happy with his fight against inflation. Voters who are voting on the economy lean Trump by 62%. Then there is this:
Beyond issues, impressions of both candidates remain mostly negative (58% of voters have an unfavorable view of Biden, 55% of Trump), and a narrow majority of voters, 53%, say they are dissatisfied with the candidates they have to choose from in this year’s presidential contest.
A sizable 17% of registered voters say they have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump, and in choosing between the two, they break for Trump, 43% to 31%, with 25% of that group saying they would vote for someone else, skip the contest entirely or just aren’t sure who they would support.
When voters hate both candidates but lean against the incumbent, that is a very bad sign.
The trends are holding. Regular, routine voters prefer Biden. But Trump is preferred by so many voters that he has the potential to overwhelm Biden at the polls with irregular voters fired up about the economy, crime, and immigration.
Democrats have convinced themselves that Trump will not win. Incumbency and money give Biden advantages. But the public’s mood is sour and favors Trump.
The only thing for certain in 2024 is that which ever side loses will scream that it was stolen. If Biden loses, he’ll have the media to amplify his claims and treat as legitimate those things the GOP could not get away with. See e.g. China, Russia, Stacey Abrams, etc. etc. etc.
