By Carl M. Cannon
Good morning, it’s Jan. 23, 2024. Following tradition, local residents voted this morning in the tiny New Hampshire village of Dixville Notch just after the clock struck midnight — the first Americans to cast primary votes in the first presidential primary election of 2024.
All six votes (I told you it was a small place) went to Nikki Haley. Does that mean Haley can upset Donald Trump today? History suggests probably not.
In 2000, Bill Bradley beat Al Gore 4-2 in Dixville Notch while George W. Bush eked out a 12-10 win over John McCain. (In the rest of the state, Gore defeated Bradley in a closer-than-expected race while McCain was thumping Bush.)
In 2004, Gen. Wesley Clark overwhelmed a crowded Democratic field with eight votes, one more than the total earned by John Kerry, John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, and Howard Dean combined. It would be the high-water mark of Wes Clark’s campaign.
In 2008 Barack Obama had seven votes in Dixville Notch, with John Edwards getting two and Bill Richardson one — but it was Hillary Clinton who won the rest of the state.
Republican John Huntsman tied Mitt Romney (2-2) in 2012, and John Kasich edged out Donald Trump 3-2 four years later. And in the 2020 Dixville Notch primary, Mike Bloomberg got two write-in votes on the Democrat side (to one each for Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg). Bloomberg also received the sole Republican vote cast that year. Also, in the general election four years ago, Joe Biden got all five Dixville Notch votes to none for Donald Trump. Now, it’s true that Biden carried New Hampshire, but not like that. (The final tally was 52.9% to 45.5%.)
So what are we to make of Dixville Notch and its early voting? The answer is not much if you’re trying to dope out the statewide winner. But sometimes other things are at play in political reporting. In a lovely bit of understatement, the Associated Press put the village’s quaint tradition in perspective this morning: “With such a tiny sample of voters, the results are not typically indicative of how an election will end up. But they do provide for an early curiosity.”
Not just curiosity, but charm as well. I also enjoyed this passage from the story written by AP reporter Nick Perry:
“The resort town was the first place in the nation to vote in the 2024 primaries. The voters were outnumbered more than 10-to-1 by reporters from every corner of the globe — not to mention by a pile of freshly baked chocolate chip cookies.”
On that note, allow me to direct you to RCP’s front page, which contains the latest poll averages, political news and video, and aggregated opinion pieces ranging across the ideological spectrum. We also offer the usual complement of original material from our stable of columnists and contributors:
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Nikki Haley Gets Two-Person Race She Wanted. Phil Wegmann reports on the latest development in the GOP race and how it might affect results today in New Hampshire — and beyond.
Haley and Trump Battle for Future of GOP in New Hampshire. Reporting from the Granite State, Phil goes on to lay out the party implications in today’s contest.
Stefanik Stumps for Trump in NH, Stays Coy About Veepstakes. Phil (yes he was busy this weekend) explores whether there’s more to the New York congresswoman’s vociferous support than meets the eye.
Less Than 4% of Iowans Voted for Trump. Bill King scrutinizes the outcome of the Hawkeye State’s caucus, where dismal voter turnout rendered a tepid verdict for the former president.
Bulwark Writers Double Down on Trump as Democracy’s Destroyer. Regular RCP columnist Peter Berkowitz addresses a recent rebuttal to his recent RCP column, “‘Flight 93 Election’ Anti-Trumpers Imperil the Rule of Law.”
In the Biggest Cases, Big Law Tilts Decisively Left. Ryan Bangert cites a recent study pointing to the legal profession’s distinct liberal bias in some of the most important decisions of the past five years.
Education’s Alarming New 4th “R”: Reversal of Learning. Vince Bielski reports that as vast amounts of federal COVID aid to public schools expire, students are far from regaining lost academic ground.
Women Bear the Brunt of Religious Freedom Abuse. Judith Golub and Lou Ann Sabatier review some of the worst oppressors and call for 2024 to be the year that turns the tide.
Leave the Pews. In a guest op-ed, Florida-based columnist Karol Markowicz implores her fellow Jewish faithful to interrogate their spiritual leaders’ actions and alliances when mixing politics with religion.
Bishop Álvarez Is Free. At RealClearPolicy, Callista Gingrich celebrates the long-overdue release of 19 priests and representatives of the Catholic church who were held as political prisoners in Nicaragua.
Gen Z’s Conflicting Opinions on Faith. At RealClearReligion, Natan Ehrenreich examines how beliefs and religious practices of those under 26 years old depart from their predecessors.
California Landscapers Brace for Gas-Powered Lawn Equipment Ban. At RealClearEnergy, Ethan Brown commiserates with lawn care businesses being crushed by environmental regulations and mounting equipment costs.
Evidence Mounts That Pre-K Harms Kids. At RealClearEducation, Max Eden notes that education professors and journalists have begun printing what used to be a controversial assertion by conservatives about early schooling.
Why Are Face Masks Back? With evidence leaning in the direction that widespread masking was ineffectual, Deane Waldman at RealClearHealth asks why the default is to repeat the exercise.
Sports Illustrated, You Literally Took My Breath Away. At RealClearMarkets, Matthew Rees pays homage to a publication that once held a hallowed place in American life.
Gen Z’s Conflicting Opinions on Faith. At RealClearReligion, Natan Ehrenreich examines how beliefs and religious practices of those under 26 years old depart from their predecessors.
David Frum and the Axis of Errors. At RealClearDefense, Francis Sempa offers counter-arguments to the call for more arms for Ukraine.
Carl M. Cannon
Washington Bureau chief, RealClearPolitics