BY KRISTINA KARISCH AND ALEXIS SIMENDINGER
Election Day 2024 is a year away, and votes on this second Tuesday in November will set the stage and provide clues about the national mood ahead of the major contest next year.
Voters across the country will be heading to the polls tomorrow to weigh in on a slew of statewide and local races; in Kentucky and Mississippi, voters will decide whether to give Govs. Andy Beshear (D) and Tate Reeves (R) a second term, while voters in Virginia and New Jersey will be determining partisan control of their state legislatures. Meanwhile in Ohio, Democrats and abortion rights advocates are looking to enshrine abortion protections into the state constitution — the first attempt of its kind in a state that’s trended increasingly red over the years. The Hill’s Caroline Vakil breaks down five key races to watch on Tuesday.
Democrats are hoping to gain full control of Virginia’s state house, The Hill’s Julia Manchester reports, as party members in and out of the commonwealth have poured money into the off-year elections, focusing particularly on the issue of abortion access. Republicans, on the other hand, have zeroed in on crime and the economy as key issues. Democrats lost their trifecta status in Richmond two years ago when Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) was elected and the GOP won back control of the House of Delegates. However, Democrats say they are feeling optimistic this November following a better-than-expected performance in the Midterm Elections last year.
The Washington Post: Time will be a hurdle if Youngkin runs for president.
Democrats are also working toward an upset in Mississippi, where a surprisingly competitive Democratic challenger, Brandon Presley, is seeking to unseat incumbent Reeves despite Mississippi’s status as a conservative stronghold. The Hill’s Julia Mueller reports that in their hopes, Democrats are pointing to Reeves’ low approval ratings and concerns about a long-running welfare scandal in the state.
Adding to the odds: the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its assessment of the Mississippi race last week from “likely” to “lean” Republican.
Mississippi voters could feel emboldened to show up and participate in a way that was more like a pipe dream in the past,” said Carrie Archie Russell, a principal senior lecturer and an expert on Southern politics at Vanderbilt University. “You can see why pundits and candidates who had taken for granted the fact that Mississippi would remain a ruby-red bastion at all levels of government forever might have to take a deep breath.”
Republicans in New Jersey see Tuesday’s legislative elections as the best opportunity in years to win control of either house. Democrats have had control of the state Senate and state General Assembly for almost 20 years, writes The Hill’s Jared Gans, and the party has a significant voter registration advantage. This presents an uphill battle for Republicans trying to win back a majority in the comfortably blue state. But the GOP is more optimistic this year about their chances given the state and national political environment — as well as recent close local races.
REPUBLICAN SENATORS hoping to win back the upper chamber are warning new Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), an outspoken Christian conservative, from moving any national abortion legislation this Congress. Johnson has cosponsored legislation to grant a fetus human rights at conception and told Sean Hannity that his political principles are guided by the Bible. But Republican senators warn that it would be a major political mistake for Johnson to attempt to restrict abortion on the national level before the 2024 election, urging him to leave the issue entirely to the states (The Hill).
“I’m still trying to figure out what his real priorities are. Obviously, we know he is [a] strong right-to-life supporter, but whether or not he would work to advance” abortion restrictions “remains to be seen,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who supports abortion rights. “Based on some of the conversations we’ve had in our conference, there’s been a lot of discussion about the political implications of a vote on abortion that would basically federalize, outlaw abortions. It would be viewed as not politically helpful.”