House Democrats fighting to flip control of the chamber next year will first have to overcome an expected bloodbath in North Carolina, where Republicans have secured a new map all but guaranteeing a red wave in November.
GOP lawmakers in the state legislature approved a redistricting plan in October that sets the stage for Republicans to pick up at least three seats, and maybe four, in the 14-member delegation — a tally that, by itself, would double the GOP’s slender House majority on Capitol Hill.
GOP lawmakers in the state legislature approved a redistricting plan in October that sets the stage for Republicans to pick up at least three seats, and maybe four, in the 14-member delegation — a tally that, by itself, would double the GOP’s slender House majority on Capitol Hill.
The new lines have squeezed more Democratic voters into some blue districts, while carving up several others so that Democratic voters are vastly outnumbered by Republicans — and the incumbent lawmakers have virtually no chance of holding their current seats.
The impact has been swift and striking: In recent weeks, three Democratic lawmakers — Reps. Kathy Manning, Jeff Jackson and Wiley Nickel — have all announced their retirements at the end of the current term, while a fourth Democrat, Rep. Don Davis, is facing even tougher headwinds in his toss-up run for reelection.
The developments have complicated the math problem facing Democratic leaders as they race to win back control of the House in November, even as President Biden’s approval rating is well underwater and the GOP’s focus on inflation and border security has proven effective.
Democrats have decried the political gerrymandering that’s generated the North Carolina shake-up, but the retiring lawmakers say they were given no choice.
“There is no question that the way they have drawn these maps, they’ve made it impossible for three of us Democrats to win our seats again,” Manning said.
Manning won her Greensboro-based district by a comfortable 9-point margin in 2022, but the new lines lump much of Greensboro with 10 rural counties to the west, all the way to the Tennessee border. The result, she said, is an insurmountable 26-point swing.
“I have looked at the map every which way to see if there is any way possible to win, and you cannot overcome a 16-point advantage,” she said.
For North Carolina, a lopsided delegation would hardly be a reflection of the state’s politics. The Tar Heel State is a true battleground, featuring almost even numbers of registered Democrats (43 percent) and Republicans (41 percent). And that split is reflected in the current delegation: Of 14 House seats, seven are currently held by Republicans, and seven by Democrats.
That symmetry had been secured by the Democratic majority of the state Supreme Court heading into the 2022 elections, when the justices struck down a map drawn by GOP state legislators, which heavily favored Republicans.
