by Erick-Woods Erickson
I am beginning to believe the hype that DeSantis can pull off a win in Iowa. I should caveat that with Never Back Down, the DeSantis-affiliated Super PAC appears in disarray, and that will complicate things.
Never Back Down has lost multiple top people and the people who replaced those people. Now, DeSantis’s supporters have formed a new Super PAC.
That being said, I think the Kim Reynolds machine and the Bob Vander Plaats machine in Iowa are both formidable and can turn out supporters for DeSantis.
Caucuses are not like primaries. You have to show up on purpose and by design and hang out. I think they can generate that turnout.
The question, though, is, does it matter?
Cruz, Santorum, and Huckabee all won Iowa and lost the nomination.
The DeSantis team thinks that winning Iowa sends a shockwave into the system, shows Trump is not inevitable, and allows people a way out.
The problem is rebounding from Iowa to New Hampshire, where Haley is more dominant than DeSantis. Haley has made a play for Iowa, but it pales in comparison to her play in New Hampshire.
If DeSantis rebounds out of Iowa, showing Trump is not inevitable, it could play to Haley’s benefit in New Hampshire, not DeSantis’s, and then springboard them both into South Carolina, where Haley has a home-field advantage.
But…and this is a big but…Trump is still dominant everywhere. Nothing may matter. The party’s base may be so insistent on subjecting everyone to a 2020 repeat that nothing really matters.
We could have a moment of clarity. I’d love to facilitate a debate between Haley and DeSantis so we can focus on clarifying divisions in the party. The DeSantis campaign makes the case that he can better consolidate Trump and non-Trump Republicans to win the primary. Haley makes the case that she can grow the party and her own coalition, and polling shows she beats Biden most decisively.
With apologies to others in the race, it appears the voters are starting to consolidate the non-Trump vote between Haley and DeSantis. The problem, however, remains that much of the party is all in on Trump v. Biden 2.0 — politics by proctology.
