Hiring Cools, Wages Rise

The US economy added 209,000 jobs in June, below economist estimates of 240,000 and below the downward revised 306,000 jobs in May, according to government data released yesterday. The figure is the fewest number of jobs added in two-and-a-half years. 

The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%, from 3.7% in May, and is in line with economist expectations. The unemployment rate has hovered between 3.4% to 3.7% since March 2022. Most of the jobs were added in government (+60,000), healthcare (+41,000), social assistance (+24,000), and construction (+23,000), while the largest declines were in retail (-11,000) and transportation and warehousing (-7,000). See a breakdown here.

Average hourly earnings—a key inflation indicator—grew 0.4% month-over-month and 4.4% year-over-year, both up from May’s 0.3% monthly growth and 4.3% annual growth. See all data here. Analysts say the overall report suggests economic activity hasn’t slowed as much as the Federal Reserve would like, keeping policymakers likely on track to raise interest rates at their upcoming meeting July 25-26, following a temporary pause last month. The benchmark rate is currently in a range between 5% and 5.25%, a 16-year high.