Charlie Neibergall, AP
A new NBCNews/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll conducted from Dec. 2-7 shows a growing lead for Donald Trump in Iowa just five weeks before the caucuses. Trump garners 51% support among likely Republican caucus-goers, an increase from 43% in October. Ron DeSantis follows with 19%, a slight rise from his earlier tie with Nikki Haley, who remains at 16%. Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie are significantly behind, polling at 5% and 4%, respectively. These numbers echo the current RCP Average in Iowa, which has Trump at 50%, DeSantis at 19.7%, Haley at 15.7%, Ramaswamy at 5.3%, and Christie at 3.7%.
The poll, involving 502 likely Republican caucus-goers, has a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points. Trump leads every other candidate in all demographics, with 51% support from evangelical Christians, 63% from first-time caucus-goers, and 36% from independents. In comparison, Haley and DeSantis garner only 23% and 17%, respectively, from independents.
Furthermore, 70% of Trump’s supporters are firmly committed to their choice, demonstrating a level of loyalty that surpasses that of DeSantis’ supporters, of whom only 30% have made a firm decision; 34% of Haley’s supporters, meanwhile, express the same certainty. Only 31% of likely caucus-goers say they are “extremely enthusiastic” about their first choice for president, with that figure being 45% for likely Trump voters, 16% for DeSantis supporters, and 21% for Haley supporters.
The poll also reveals that a large proportion of respondents (73%) believe Trump can win against Joe Biden in the general election, despite the ongoing legal challenges the former president faces. This sentiment has grown since October, when only 65% believed that Trump could win against Biden. Among DeSantis supporters, 59% think that Trump can win despite any legal challenges he faces, while only 34% of Haley’s supporters share this belief.
– Jonathan Draeger
