Israel at the Precipice; Liberal Education; Congressional Manchin-ations
By Carl M. Cannon
Good morning, it’s Tuesday, Nov. 14, less than one year away from the 2024 presidential election. Every seat in the House of Representatives will also be on the ballot that day, at least on paper, along with 33 Senate seats.
I say “on paper” because the House is so thoroughly gerrymandered that fewer than 60 of its 435 seats are truly in play — maybe half that number. Nonetheless, with the House so closely divided, control of the lower body is certainly up for grabs.Similarly, with so many states predictably in the “red” or “blue” camps, there’s not much drama in the most of the 33 Senate elections taking place next year. But there are enough to make it interesting, and meaningful.
The 2024 Senate map, which always favored Republicans, got a whole lot tougher last week for the Democrats and their tenuous 51-49 majority. Of the 33 Senate seats to be contested next year, only 10 are held by Republicans — most all of them in fairly safe states for the GOP. Moreover, the Democrats are almost certainly going to lose one of their own, the seat in West Virginia currently occupied by Joe Manchin.
The Mountain State, which divorced itself from Virginia over the issues of slavery and union, was never part of the “solid South” — i.e., the bloc that historically gave Democrats an advantage in Congress. And it has a fascinating history in presidential elections. West Virginia went all four times for Franklin Roosevelt and for his successor, Harry Truman, in 1948. Likewise, in the Sixties it supported Democrats John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and Hubert Humphrey.
But 20th century West Virginians also proved to be uncommonly discerning: They voted for Adlai Stevenson over Dwight Eisenhower in 1952, but reversed field in the 1956 rematch. Likewise, after voting for Humphrey over Richard Nixon in 1968, they turned around and supported Nixon in 1972. The state went for Jimmy Carter twice — even over Ronald Reagan in 1980 — but four years later broke overwhelmingly for the incumbent in the 1984 Reagan landslide.
Does this mean President Biden could compete there next year? Not likely. Donald Trump carried the state twice by more than 40 percentage points. West Virginia is just not the same place, electorally, that it was before.
When Joe Manchin won the governorship in 2004, he succeeded another Democrat. Also, both West Virginia senators were Democrats, as were two of its three House members. In his home state, Manchin now seems like the last of the bison. And though he’s never lost a race, Manchin’s reelection in 2024 was hardly a foregone conclusion. On the contrary, an early October Emerson College poll had West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice leading Manchin by 12 percentage points. Manchin’s name on the ballot at least gave Democrats a fighting chance, however. Not now. He took himself out of the race.
In Friday’s RCP Takeaway, Tom Bevan, Andrew Walworth, and I discussed the implications of Joe Manchin’s decision, as well as the speculation that he might run for president as an independent. (We also analyzed last week’s election returns and the winners and losers in Wednesday night’s GOP debate in Miami.)In a moment, I’ll offer an additional thought on what Joe Manchin’s abdication means on Capitol Hill. First, I’d direct you to RCP’s front page, which contains the latest poll averages, political news and video, and aggregated opinion pieces ranging across the ideological spectrum. We also offer the usual complement of original material from our stable of columnists and contributors:
Tuesday’s RCP Takeaway. Tom Bevan and I discuss the recently suspended presidential campaign of Tim Scott and the debate among Dem insiders about whether Biden’s age will affect his second-term prospects.
General Education Act Renews Liberal Education in America. Peter Berkowitz outlines the model bill directed at renewing and improving civics instruction at America’s colleges and universities.
Israel at the Precipice Once Again. Mark Helprin chronicles the recent history of the Jewish nation-state and its fight for safety and sovereignty in a hostile region.
Swing Voters Confident Israel Is the Good Guy, and Hamas Is the Bad Guy. Dan Backer cautions Democrats to think carefully before siding with the sworn enemy of the Jewish state.
No Way To Avoid Fighting Hamas and No Other Way To Fight. Alexander Yakobson rebuts arguments that despite the enemy’s use of human shields, Israel must limit its strikes to areas where there are no civilians.
Big Money Matters, But It’s Not Everything. Krista Carter highlights the power of simple but effective campaign fundraising made possible by a strong, focused donor base.
Road to Victory Meets the Dysfunctional IHL Permit Process. At RealClearDefense, Kevin James contends that we must enable countries of the West to win their wars against evil regimes while still taking humanitarian concerns into account.
“Thank You For Your Service.” Also at RealClearDefense, Francis Sempa reviews Miles Lagoze’s “Whistles from the Graveyard: My Time Behind the Camera on War, Rage, and Restless Youth in Afghanistan,” and John Waters’ new book, “River City One.”
What It Feels Like To Survive an IED Blast. And for RealClearBooks&Culture, John Waters shares an excerpt from “River City One.”
You Can Die for Your Country, but You Can’t Go to a Career College. At RealClearEducation, Bob Carey calls out the DOE’s paternalistic actions for disrespecting veterans who deserve to make their own education choices without limits.
Make Veterans Day More Exclusive. RealClearPolicy’s editor Jerry Rogers reflects on the need to hone the focus of the national holiday formerly known as Armistice Day.
Rising Anti-Semitism Highlights the Danger of Toxic Empathy. At RealClearWorld, Aaron Pomerantz cautions that “victim justice sensitivity” can blind us to the complexities of real-world situations, making effective change impossible.
The Declaration of Independence Founded a Theistic Republic. At RealClearReligion, Steele Brand observes that the document’s signers unanimously advocated for a nation built on the premise that a good God not only created the world but demanded justice, liberty, and equality from those who govern it.
Fatherhood Decline Is Causing Rise of Religious “Nones.” Also at RealClearReligion, J.P. De Gance writes that if we are to see a societal renewal, churches must work to increase the number of healthy marriages and increase the efficacy of the fathers in those homes.
Wait Until Dark. At RealClearHealth, Peter Pitts warns that when a federal regulatory agency foregoes open public rule-making and deletes public documentation of its actions, something is afoot.
Nuclear Energy Renaissance Is the Best Path Forward. At RealClearEnergy, RJ Roux and Yaël Ossowski submits that a world in pursuit of a carbon neutral future must look beyond EVs and wind turbines.
In announcing his retirement from the Senate, Joe Manchin ruminated on the reasons for his decision. He invoked at least three. They aren’t mutually exclusive, but they are different.
The first was somewhat self-serving: He said he thinks West Virginia is in a good place, on the upswing, and that he’s accomplished what he set out to do in politics there.
Second, he seemed to open the door for an independent presidential campaign, dropping intriguing hints about “traveling the country” to see about drumming up support for a movement to “mobilize the middle.”
Third, and this has been a theme of Manchin’s in the last few years, he seems to be tired of life on Capitol Hill — and the way the two major political parties operate. “Every incentive in Washington is designed to make our politics extreme,” he said. “The growing divide between Democrats and Republicans is paralyzing Congress and worsening our nation’s problems. The majority of Americans are just plain worn out.”
As if on cue, this morning the House tackles legislation designed to fund the government past Friday at midnight. An hour later, the Senate continues debating its own version of a bill designed to avert yet another government shutdown. Joe Manchin is on to something. With the world on fire, such posturing and ineptitude are getting tiresome.
Carl M. Cannon
Washington Bureau chief, RealClearPolitics
@CarlCannon (Twitter)
ccannon@realclearpolitics.com
