Erick-Woods Erickson
Here’s my frustration with the state of conservative media and online punditry. You can conjure the most outlandish theories and never have to say you’re sorry. And you can conjure those theories while connecting dots to lead you out of the theory you know isn’t true and everyone just shrugs. And it is far easier to go with the herd than say what you know to be true.
I knew CNN would do a fine debate. Tapper and Bash are professionals. There was no delay in the feed. They were not going to edit Joe Biden both because they would not and it would be technically impossible while also distributing a live feed to other networks. But much of the conservative online space wanted to believe. It was far easier to attack CNN pre-emptively than say the truth. And even now, there’ll be those who defensively insist telling the truth was wrong, a lie, or only a lucky guess.
The same is so with Joe Biden and his nomination. Biden may wind up being forced out. But the reality is only Joe Biden can do it and the chip on his shoulder over multiple rejected runs for the presidency and Barack Obama pushing him aside for Hillary Clinton in 2016 cannot be underestimated. This man ran for president, convinced he could win, and saw Dukakis flame out, Al Gore lose, and Hillary Clinton lose. They were the sure bets. He never was. But he won. Good luck convincing him to get out now.
But it is far easier to tell you Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom will be the nominee and there’s a secret plot to push Biden out. You’ll never have to say you’re sorry. Meanwhile, telling you the truth with the caveat that things could play out so that Biden changes his mind will be regarded as the firm conviction that Biden stays and if he doesn’t, you’ll be criticized even if Michelle or Gavin are not the nominee.
As an aside, talk to any major Democratic strategist and they’ll tell you the same about both. The right is obsessed with Newsom because everyone on Fox, Newsmax, and talk radio except me assures you he is the fall back. But Democrats want to win and know Newsom has too much baggage and is too progressive even for most Democrat leaning voters. Democrat Governors think he is a pr*ck, as Governor Sununu said. Sununu is right. Obama won’t be it because the Biden team is still bitter Barack Obama sided with Hillary Clinton and Team Biden blames Team Obama for Trump winning.
The truth is that this is Joe Biden’s nomination if he wants it; there is no path to get Joe Biden to step aside if he does not want to; and it is far easier for the Democrats to stick with Biden than replacing him, even with Kamala Harris.
And if you don’t believe me, just consider a few things.
First, only Kamala Harris could get Joe Biden’s campaign war chest. No other candidate could. Second, the delegates are legally bound to Biden unless he releases them or unless two-thirds of the delegates vote to change the rules at the convention. Oh, and remember the superdelegates? They only matter if there is a second ballot, which there can’t be with Biden having 99% of the delegates.
After last night’s disastrous debate performance, the demands among Democrats for Biden to step aside are ubiquitous. From panicked New York Times columnists to former Democratic Senators on MSNBC, it is nearly impossible to find a noteworthy Democrat unaffiliated with Biden who publicly claims the President should remain on the ticket.
The conspiratorial “force Biden out” talk has no basis in reality. Within two weeks, the same people in meltdown over the last forty-eight hours will pretend it didn’t happen and you’re pushing cheap fakes if you roll the tape.
But beyond everything above, if Biden leaves office where does he go? Does he go home to his two drug-addicted children with a dog that bites while his wife resents him for giving up the presidency? Biden would be sitting at home on election night watching a historically unpopular Kamala Harris lose every traditional swing state and put places like Virginia, Minnesota, and Colorado in play.
Unless I can be convinced otherwise, the most likely scenario is that Biden stays on top of the ticket. It is possible, just not probable, that Biden steps aside. A few more thoughts in the video:
